It's Too Unknown: Why the Democrats Shouldn't be Favored in Georgia
The world is radically different than the data we have to analyze it
If Democrats win both Georgia Senate races, they’ll control the chamber and radically alter the trajectory of Biden’s presidency.
With the races six days away, some very smart folks have argued that the Democrats are favored. Their case rests on two points.
First, they argue that Democrats are turning out at good rates. If the early vote holds, the Democrats are likely to by win by two points.
Second, they argue that Democrats have flipped the suburbs. If that holds, then Republican’s old coalitions—the idea that their voters turned out more in runoffs—no longer holds.
I’m skeptical that we can extrapolate anything from November race to a runoff. In Cobb County, a suburb of Atlanta, Biden ran 13.6 points better than Obama did in 2012. The county is extremely well-educated—46.5% of the over 25 population has a bachelor’s degree, which is well over the national average—and we don’t know if those voters are permanent Biden Democrats or just anti-Trump voters.
The pattern holds in Gwinnett County. Biden ran 13.8 points better than Obama and over eight points ahead of Clinton. These voters have a history of supporting past Republicans. It’s not crazy that a few of them will decide that the GOP candidates are no longer a vote for a defeated Trump and pull the lever for them.
Georgia is one of the first tests for how well the suburban vote remains in the Democrat’s column. But all 2020 proved is that the suburbs hated Donald Trump. There are reasonable arguments that these voters are more culturally aligned with the Democrats, and that they might like their agenda more than the GOP’s. But we also can make a strong argument that these voters detested Trump, and we don’t know if they still view a vote for two Senate seats—when Trump is no longer president—as a referendum on him.
The reality is that Georgia is unique; we shouldn’t have much certainty. I would not be shocked if Republicans, dispirited by Trump losing/thinking the election is stolen, turn out in lower numbers on election day. I would not be shocked if suburban voters stay in Biden’s column as they view the Democrats as their new home, and think the Republican Party is still controlled by Trump.
But I can make an equally persuasive case that things are different. Jon Ossoff, the Democratic challenger, ran nearly 100,000 votes behind Biden in the original race. Raphael Warnock, despite being the main Democratic candidate, did not garner overwhelming support (earning 33% of the vote in a multi-party race; Loeffler and the second Republican earned 47%). If the Democrats turn out poorly on election day, then they could get swamped with GOP voters.
I’m also not someone that’s inherently pessimistic about Democrats in Georgia. In July, I predicted that Biden would win Georgia (let’s ignore the three states I missed). I thought he’d make giant suburban gains against Trump. I’m unsure what happens post-Trump, and I need some sample size before I can offer any certainty.
My guess is that the contests tilt GOP because enough suburban voters will opt for divided government, and Trump’s rural voters will still turn out. But I have extremely low confidence in that. I would not bet anything on Georgia because things are too different to rely on much from the recent past.
Kendall Kaut is an assistant district attorney, sports editor and election analyst. If you like the newsletter, please forward it and tell others to subscribe. You can follow Kendall on Twitter @kendallkaut