With my game theory hat on, I *think* I can counter each one of these claims with a semi-rational, semi-fear-based argument. But I sure can't counter all of them at once.
A friend sent this to me as I'd been throwing up all day from the stress. I can already feel myself breathing. My shoulders are not up around my ears. Thank you. Subscribing and following. Sounds as though you're a baseball guy which makes it even better.
Nicely written analysis, let's hope you are right. I do think there are a good number of "shy" Trump supporters and that the final count will be closer than the polls show. Trump has pulled off what no American leader has ever done--he has created a cult of personality and has thereby made his psychopathy a social psychological phenomenon. Not only are his voters largely fanatical, but the Republican Party has gone off the rails and has abandoned democratic norms entirely. It is a post-democratic party, much like Fidez in Hungary and Law and Justice in Poland. This means we don't know what they will do, it's unpredictable. However, in the context of a cult of personality, with fanatical followers and a lawless party apparatus, it seems unlikely that they will accept defeat, even if it is decisive. That doesn't mean they can effect a coup, just that they will if there is a way. Moreover, all of these factors will be there when this is over, even if Biden is sworn in as President. We are in for a period of spiraling conflict, and we may be forced to see our way to new political arrangements before the conflict gets out of hand. That wouldn't be tragic necessarily, and it might well be the far better alternative.
Well, this article is going to age like milk in the sun. MSM has done a truly incredible job of convincing you that Trump supporters don’t exist, polls do a terrible job at even asking R voters their opinion, and D voters live in such an echo chamber they can’t fathom other people having different views. You don’t need to read the polls to see the difference, look at rally attendance and you see more people in line at the bathroom of a Trump rally than the entire crowd at a Biden “rally”. I’ll be sure to check back here on the 4th though.
Yeah, if I'm wrong, come dunk on me. If I'm not, it will be fairly hard to find someone named Marshall, but I might just to a Marshall's and buy something on sale to feel like I dunked on a Marshall in your honor.
He isn't totally wrong yet. In fact, there's still a slightly better than even chance that Biden will win because the areas where votes are still being counted--Philly, Detroit, Atlanta among others--are very likely to favor the Democrats. Which is why Trump would like to stop the vote counting and stage what would be the equivalent of a coup. But that's not going to work and all he'll end up doing is inflaming his supporters. But yes, he's in a much better position to win now than Kaut gave him credit for. Moreover, I think it's really worth investigating whether Trafalgar doesn't in fact have the superior methodology. Especially if their perditions in Michigan and Pennsylvania hold it will be extremely difficult to say that they haven't successfully innovated and beaten the tar out of all the mainstream polling organizations.
They do for sure. I'll do a look at what went wrong, but basically, I took all the narratives for why Clinton lost--it must have been that she was also unpopular, it must be that the polls missed by education, we won't have a big polling error, the national polls can't be off by that, it's a different framework with an incumbent.
I also was way too quick to attack Trafalgar and others. While they've been awful in spots, I think there's a chance they're on to something with trying to find more Trump voters, but they might be missing something too.
The lesson of 2020 is that each side was right about what the other didn't know. The left/MSM types trusted the polls way, way, way too much.
The right couldn't understand Trump had unique weaknesses in Suburbs and with some whites.
The lesson is that each side should listen to why the other is wrong, and be more humble. A powerful one for me.
So, as someone on the right, let me say that I expected Trump's weaknesses in the inner suburbs and with some whites. I was expecting him to lose and by more than he apparently has although I was expecting the polls to be biased towards Biden due to shy Trump voters and confirmation bias.
I think the big problem on the left is that they assumed that every reasonable person had to agree with them about Trump. Well, that is obviously not true. One of the interesting things was to see the reaction to Trafalgar. It was not polite disagreement with their approach. It was more an attack on their integrity. I think that there was a lot of confirmation bias among the pollsters. If an approach to analyzing the election showed Trump winning they went through it looking for flaws. If it showed Biden winning they accepted it.
Some of the biggest stories from this election have to be Trump's strength among black voters and and his strength among Hispanic voters, especially non-Cuban Hispanics. I do not think many people expected that. But Trump has done something that previous Republicans haven't. He actually went out to minority voters and asked for their votes and to everyone's surprise he got a decent response. This apparently outweighed his tone deaf statements and all the claims that he was a racist.
I also think that the impact of COVID, BLM/1619/cancellation of historical figures, riots, and left wing political violence were all huge confounding factors. Trump's handling of COVID almost certainly hurt him, but the others helped immensely. The Beltway and social media echo chambers hid much of this from people on the left, which probably included most of the MSM election prognosticators.
Your failing argument “but but but rally attendance, bathroom lines” misses by a landslide and is clearly addressed by (1) republicans are less likely to adhere to social distancing guidelines and safe practices, and (2) Trump voters clearly have chronic explosive diarrhea so the bathroom lines are longer.
Tell you what, I promise to donate $25 to the nonpolitical charity of your choice if you actually do come back on the 4th and discuss it with us. What do you say?
I’ll get in on that as well. $25 to your nonpolitical charity of choice if you come back on the 4th and discuss this with Casey and I. See you then, Marshall!
Biden voters don't feel the need attend large rallies. They are smart enough to avoid large crowds because of Covid then trump supports who are screaming their heads off about firing Dr Fauci. And Biden doesn't abandon his supports out in the cold to find their own way home.
Data hurts doesn’t it Marshall. Trump’s Big crowds and caravan in 2018 amounted to squat in swing states. Truth is that America is through with Trump. Failed experiment.
Great, so Marshall- we’ve got $75 so far on the line for you to just come back tomorrow and tell us your latest thoughts and discuss. St Jude’s is a great charity.
Some of the best analysis I've read all cycle! After reading, I'm convinced that Trump can't win unless he cheats.
Curious if you have thoughts on what margin of victory in a state is "cheat-proof." For instance, how much do the Dems have to win PA by to avoid Trump's Supreme Court shenanigans?
I think PA is a little unique depending on how fast they count. The feel confident they're done by Friday. So when we're talking, "After the official final count reported by the state, how much could Trump/the GOP challenge?" it would be very low. I think a .2% lead for Biden after the official count would be shenanigans proof. I think it's likely even lower than that, but that adds uncertainty for how much you might view Trump team as willing to throw everything at the wall.
It's very hard to throw the results out once they've been counted.
The Biden risk would be more in pre-counting errors: do ballots get rejected without any influence from the Trump side/courts, or does the mail fail to deliver ballots. It's much harder to flip an election after the votes count.
I still think even in an close scenario--let's say we have an even bigger error than '16--I don't think the error will be uniform. I think Biden has a real strength in MI, WI and AZ. Arizona is the big one that's a problem for Trump. The polling was incredibly accurate the last several cycles. The NRSCC admits that McSally is losing, and the president-senate splits have been very low in the Trump era (see PA, NH and WI last time; Rubio in '16 in Florida is one of the few guys to run ahead/behind the president in a competitive state during a presidential cycle).
this is the last bit of election news/analysis before i turn off my news feeds and notification. thank you for the well-reasoned and compelling back-rubs youʻve given to those of us who still suffer some PTSD from 2016.
i also think the "shy trump voter" is a laughable thing...if anything, those shy voters might be shy in predominantly blue states, in which case they really donʻt matter. on the other hand, i think there may be many hidden biden voters in red states - those who are afraid of their maga gun-toting neighbors, but who are nonetheless tired of the poor response to covid & the neverending embarrassments that spew forth from the orange monster. am sure there are more than a few hidden biden voters who just want this madness to end. at least biden will shut up.
For real, here. I live in a very conservative county in central Florida (I'm a life-long Liberal transplant from CT). Even I was a little nervous putting out the Biden/Harris sign in the front yard. After all, we are just one block from the house with Trump, Blue Lives, Confederate, Don't Tread on Me, POW/MIA, and American flags ALL displayed in the front yard (plus the NRA stickers on the trucks). But then there are a couple of houses with the "I'm a Republican, not a Fool! Biden 2020" signs - which gives me hope.
Would love to see Trump lose by that margin, but there are a few misses in this - for example your argument that because plenty of MAGA supporters are not shy this proves that no MAGA supporters are shy. That doesn't make sense. "Shy" also doesn't necessarily mean shy, that's just branding, it is any reason that Trump supporters may be less likely to respond to a survey. If there is a systematic difference in Democratic versus Republican response rates for surveys for any reason this will throw the results slightly off by that margin. That said, that is not the decisive factor in this. Here is Nate Silver reminding everyone that a 10% chance of victory is not 0% https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/. I think Biden will win, but I doubt it will be by the margin you are predicting. Here's hoping though:)
Wrong on both counts. Trump was blown out in the popular vote, of course (Republicans will never, ever win the popular vote for President again unless they run the second coming of Jesus) and seems to be on his way to winning the EC, perhaps decisively.
With my game theory hat on, I *think* I can counter each one of these claims with a semi-rational, semi-fear-based argument. But I sure can't counter all of them at once.
Appreciate that.
die in pain asshole
Well said. That is easily the shortest explanation for why this article is most likely right that I can think of. Bravo.
Very enjoyable read and thankfully, reassuring. Ready for Tuesday!
Thanks!
Excellent read far more detail than I expected but on every measure you say biden will be the 46th President on the 4th of November.
Thanks!
A friend sent this to me as I'd been throwing up all day from the stress. I can already feel myself breathing. My shoulders are not up around my ears. Thank you. Subscribing and following. Sounds as though you're a baseball guy which makes it even better.
I do like sports. Thanks!
Best 2020 Election analysis I have read so far! Thank you for this. Reaffirms my beliefs.
Thanks!
Nicely written analysis, let's hope you are right. I do think there are a good number of "shy" Trump supporters and that the final count will be closer than the polls show. Trump has pulled off what no American leader has ever done--he has created a cult of personality and has thereby made his psychopathy a social psychological phenomenon. Not only are his voters largely fanatical, but the Republican Party has gone off the rails and has abandoned democratic norms entirely. It is a post-democratic party, much like Fidez in Hungary and Law and Justice in Poland. This means we don't know what they will do, it's unpredictable. However, in the context of a cult of personality, with fanatical followers and a lawless party apparatus, it seems unlikely that they will accept defeat, even if it is decisive. That doesn't mean they can effect a coup, just that they will if there is a way. Moreover, all of these factors will be there when this is over, even if Biden is sworn in as President. We are in for a period of spiraling conflict, and we may be forced to see our way to new political arrangements before the conflict gets out of hand. That wouldn't be tragic necessarily, and it might well be the far better alternative.
Well, this article is going to age like milk in the sun. MSM has done a truly incredible job of convincing you that Trump supporters don’t exist, polls do a terrible job at even asking R voters their opinion, and D voters live in such an echo chamber they can’t fathom other people having different views. You don’t need to read the polls to see the difference, look at rally attendance and you see more people in line at the bathroom of a Trump rally than the entire crowd at a Biden “rally”. I’ll be sure to check back here on the 4th though.
Yeah, if I'm wrong, come dunk on me. If I'm not, it will be fairly hard to find someone named Marshall, but I might just to a Marshall's and buy something on sale to feel like I dunked on a Marshall in your honor.
Its Nov 4 morning and I woke up and Biden hasnt won and the polls were wrong.
You put yourself out there and on the line so I won't gloat or mock, but I would like to see a follow up giving your thoughts on where you went wrong.
He isn't totally wrong yet. In fact, there's still a slightly better than even chance that Biden will win because the areas where votes are still being counted--Philly, Detroit, Atlanta among others--are very likely to favor the Democrats. Which is why Trump would like to stop the vote counting and stage what would be the equivalent of a coup. But that's not going to work and all he'll end up doing is inflaming his supporters. But yes, he's in a much better position to win now than Kaut gave him credit for. Moreover, I think it's really worth investigating whether Trafalgar doesn't in fact have the superior methodology. Especially if their perditions in Michigan and Pennsylvania hold it will be extremely difficult to say that they haven't successfully innovated and beaten the tar out of all the mainstream polling organizations.
hes not taking power we will see to that.
Even if Biden eventually wins the results were well outside the polling margins of error and call into question Kendall's logic.
They do for sure. I'll do a look at what went wrong, but basically, I took all the narratives for why Clinton lost--it must have been that she was also unpopular, it must be that the polls missed by education, we won't have a big polling error, the national polls can't be off by that, it's a different framework with an incumbent.
I also was way too quick to attack Trafalgar and others. While they've been awful in spots, I think there's a chance they're on to something with trying to find more Trump voters, but they might be missing something too.
The lesson of 2020 is that each side was right about what the other didn't know. The left/MSM types trusted the polls way, way, way too much.
The right couldn't understand Trump had unique weaknesses in Suburbs and with some whites.
The lesson is that each side should listen to why the other is wrong, and be more humble. A powerful one for me.
So, as someone on the right, let me say that I expected Trump's weaknesses in the inner suburbs and with some whites. I was expecting him to lose and by more than he apparently has although I was expecting the polls to be biased towards Biden due to shy Trump voters and confirmation bias.
I think the big problem on the left is that they assumed that every reasonable person had to agree with them about Trump. Well, that is obviously not true. One of the interesting things was to see the reaction to Trafalgar. It was not polite disagreement with their approach. It was more an attack on their integrity. I think that there was a lot of confirmation bias among the pollsters. If an approach to analyzing the election showed Trump winning they went through it looking for flaws. If it showed Biden winning they accepted it.
Some of the biggest stories from this election have to be Trump's strength among black voters and and his strength among Hispanic voters, especially non-Cuban Hispanics. I do not think many people expected that. But Trump has done something that previous Republicans haven't. He actually went out to minority voters and asked for their votes and to everyone's surprise he got a decent response. This apparently outweighed his tone deaf statements and all the claims that he was a racist.
I also think that the impact of COVID, BLM/1619/cancellation of historical figures, riots, and left wing political violence were all huge confounding factors. Trump's handling of COVID almost certainly hurt him, but the others helped immensely. The Beltway and social media echo chambers hid much of this from people on the left, which probably included most of the MSM election prognosticators.
When can we start the dunking?
Your failing argument “but but but rally attendance, bathroom lines” misses by a landslide and is clearly addressed by (1) republicans are less likely to adhere to social distancing guidelines and safe practices, and (2) Trump voters clearly have chronic explosive diarrhea so the bathroom lines are longer.
Bernie had huge crowds. Lost to Biden.
Tell you what, I promise to donate $25 to the nonpolitical charity of your choice if you actually do come back on the 4th and discuss it with us. What do you say?
I’ll get in on that as well. $25 to your nonpolitical charity of choice if you come back on the 4th and discuss this with Casey and I. See you then, Marshall!
I’m in as well.
Biden voters don't feel the need attend large rallies. They are smart enough to avoid large crowds because of Covid then trump supports who are screaming their heads off about firing Dr Fauci. And Biden doesn't abandon his supports out in the cold to find their own way home.
Data hurts doesn’t it Marshall. Trump’s Big crowds and caravan in 2018 amounted to squat in swing states. Truth is that America is through with Trump. Failed experiment.
Are you joking? All we've heard about for 4 years are delicate Trumpists and how much we have to tiptoe around them. See you on the 4th.
You were saying? LOL
...and?
Thoughts Marshall? Haven’t heard from you in a while.
Great, so Marshall- we’ve got $75 so far on the line for you to just come back tomorrow and tell us your latest thoughts and discuss. St Jude’s is a great charity.
Some of the best analysis I've read all cycle! After reading, I'm convinced that Trump can't win unless he cheats.
Curious if you have thoughts on what margin of victory in a state is "cheat-proof." For instance, how much do the Dems have to win PA by to avoid Trump's Supreme Court shenanigans?
BTW, building on your points in (J), I did some analysis of my own about why Biden is right to visit MI/WI/PA and why Trump is foolish to play defense in NC/TX/GA: https://neelmehta.medium.com/5-keys-to-campaign-strategy-5-high-variance-plays-4a1f32f88920.
-
Sure, appreciate the praise!
I think PA is a little unique depending on how fast they count. The feel confident they're done by Friday. So when we're talking, "After the official final count reported by the state, how much could Trump/the GOP challenge?" it would be very low. I think a .2% lead for Biden after the official count would be shenanigans proof. I think it's likely even lower than that, but that adds uncertainty for how much you might view Trump team as willing to throw everything at the wall.
It's very hard to throw the results out once they've been counted.
The Biden risk would be more in pre-counting errors: do ballots get rejected without any influence from the Trump side/courts, or does the mail fail to deliver ballots. It's much harder to flip an election after the votes count.
I still think even in an close scenario--let's say we have an even bigger error than '16--I don't think the error will be uniform. I think Biden has a real strength in MI, WI and AZ. Arizona is the big one that's a problem for Trump. The polling was incredibly accurate the last several cycles. The NRSCC admits that McSally is losing, and the president-senate splits have been very low in the Trump era (see PA, NH and WI last time; Rubio in '16 in Florida is one of the few guys to run ahead/behind the president in a competitive state during a presidential cycle).
Also, really like the article
. I am now following you on Medium.
This is incredibly comprehensive and well-reasoned. If I were a candidate I would hire you in a New York minute. Good work!
Thanks!
Hands down, the best analysis I have read about this Presidential election cycle.
Appreciate it!
trafalgar was closer to the truth than your treasured 'professional pollsters' were. the latter had learned NOTHING.
Hmmmm... :)
this is the last bit of election news/analysis before i turn off my news feeds and notification. thank you for the well-reasoned and compelling back-rubs youʻve given to those of us who still suffer some PTSD from 2016.
i also think the "shy trump voter" is a laughable thing...if anything, those shy voters might be shy in predominantly blue states, in which case they really donʻt matter. on the other hand, i think there may be many hidden biden voters in red states - those who are afraid of their maga gun-toting neighbors, but who are nonetheless tired of the poor response to covid & the neverending embarrassments that spew forth from the orange monster. am sure there are more than a few hidden biden voters who just want this madness to end. at least biden will shut up.
For real, here. I live in a very conservative county in central Florida (I'm a life-long Liberal transplant from CT). Even I was a little nervous putting out the Biden/Harris sign in the front yard. After all, we are just one block from the house with Trump, Blue Lives, Confederate, Don't Tread on Me, POW/MIA, and American flags ALL displayed in the front yard (plus the NRA stickers on the trucks). But then there are a couple of houses with the "I'm a Republican, not a Fool! Biden 2020" signs - which gives me hope.
Would love to see Trump lose by that margin, but there are a few misses in this - for example your argument that because plenty of MAGA supporters are not shy this proves that no MAGA supporters are shy. That doesn't make sense. "Shy" also doesn't necessarily mean shy, that's just branding, it is any reason that Trump supporters may be less likely to respond to a survey. If there is a systematic difference in Democratic versus Republican response rates for surveys for any reason this will throw the results slightly off by that margin. That said, that is not the decisive factor in this. Here is Nate Silver reminding everyone that a 10% chance of victory is not 0% https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/. I think Biden will win, but I doubt it will be by the margin you are predicting. Here's hoping though:)
This article won't age well. What a waste of time and effort. Trump will win the electoral college and the popular vote.
Ahhh, the internet. A deeply researched and detailed article, and “jedarc’s” opinion. How shall I weigh them?
And the popular vote?!? Obvious troll is obvious...
This troll’s post didn’t age well. Lol
Wrong on both counts. Trump was blown out in the popular vote, of course (Republicans will never, ever win the popular vote for President again unless they run the second coming of Jesus) and seems to be on his way to winning the EC, perhaps decisively.