80 Comments
Nov 1, 2020Liked by Kendall Kaut

With my game theory hat on, I *think* I can counter each one of these claims with a semi-rational, semi-fear-based argument. But I sure can't counter all of them at once.

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Nov 1, 2020Liked by Kendall Kaut

Very enjoyable read and thankfully, reassuring. Ready for Tuesday!

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Nov 2, 2020Liked by Kendall Kaut

Excellent read far more detail than I expected but on every measure you say biden will be the 46th President on the 4th of November.

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Nov 2, 2020Liked by Kendall Kaut

A friend sent this to me as I'd been throwing up all day from the stress. I can already feel myself breathing. My shoulders are not up around my ears. Thank you. Subscribing and following. Sounds as though you're a baseball guy which makes it even better.

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Nov 1, 2020Liked by Kendall Kaut

Best 2020 Election analysis I have read so far! Thank you for this. Reaffirms my beliefs.

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Nicely written analysis, let's hope you are right. I do think there are a good number of "shy" Trump supporters and that the final count will be closer than the polls show. Trump has pulled off what no American leader has ever done--he has created a cult of personality and has thereby made his psychopathy a social psychological phenomenon. Not only are his voters largely fanatical, but the Republican Party has gone off the rails and has abandoned democratic norms entirely. It is a post-democratic party, much like Fidez in Hungary and Law and Justice in Poland. This means we don't know what they will do, it's unpredictable. However, in the context of a cult of personality, with fanatical followers and a lawless party apparatus, it seems unlikely that they will accept defeat, even if it is decisive. That doesn't mean they can effect a coup, just that they will if there is a way. Moreover, all of these factors will be there when this is over, even if Biden is sworn in as President. We are in for a period of spiraling conflict, and we may be forced to see our way to new political arrangements before the conflict gets out of hand. That wouldn't be tragic necessarily, and it might well be the far better alternative.

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Well, this article is going to age like milk in the sun. MSM has done a truly incredible job of convincing you that Trump supporters don’t exist, polls do a terrible job at even asking R voters their opinion, and D voters live in such an echo chamber they can’t fathom other people having different views. You don’t need to read the polls to see the difference, look at rally attendance and you see more people in line at the bathroom of a Trump rally than the entire crowd at a Biden “rally”. I’ll be sure to check back here on the 4th though.

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Some of the best analysis I've read all cycle! After reading, I'm convinced that Trump can't win unless he cheats.

Curious if you have thoughts on what margin of victory in a state is "cheat-proof." For instance, how much do the Dems have to win PA by to avoid Trump's Supreme Court shenanigans?

BTW, building on your points in (J), I did some analysis of my own about why Biden is right to visit MI/WI/PA and why Trump is foolish to play defense in NC/TX/GA: https://neelmehta.medium.com/5-keys-to-campaign-strategy-5-high-variance-plays-4a1f32f88920.

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This is incredibly comprehensive and well-reasoned. If I were a candidate I would hire you in a New York minute. Good work!

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Hands down, the best analysis I have read about this Presidential election cycle.

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trafalgar was closer to the truth than your treasured 'professional pollsters' were. the latter had learned NOTHING.

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Hmmmm... :)

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this is the last bit of election news/analysis before i turn off my news feeds and notification. thank you for the well-reasoned and compelling back-rubs youʻve given to those of us who still suffer some PTSD from 2016.

i also think the "shy trump voter" is a laughable thing...if anything, those shy voters might be shy in predominantly blue states, in which case they really donʻt matter. on the other hand, i think there may be many hidden biden voters in red states - those who are afraid of their maga gun-toting neighbors, but who are nonetheless tired of the poor response to covid & the neverending embarrassments that spew forth from the orange monster. am sure there are more than a few hidden biden voters who just want this madness to end. at least biden will shut up.

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Would love to see Trump lose by that margin, but there are a few misses in this - for example your argument that because plenty of MAGA supporters are not shy this proves that no MAGA supporters are shy. That doesn't make sense. "Shy" also doesn't necessarily mean shy, that's just branding, it is any reason that Trump supporters may be less likely to respond to a survey. If there is a systematic difference in Democratic versus Republican response rates for surveys for any reason this will throw the results slightly off by that margin. That said, that is not the decisive factor in this. Here is Nate Silver reminding everyone that a 10% chance of victory is not 0% https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/im-here-to-remind-you-that-trump-can-still-win/. I think Biden will win, but I doubt it will be by the margin you are predicting. Here's hoping though:)

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This article won't age well. What a waste of time and effort. Trump will win the electoral college and the popular vote.

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